Trump’s trade war with China and structural change in Vietnam

Dr Pierre-Louis Vezina (King’s College London)  

In this seminar, Prof Vezina examines structural change in Vietnam through the lens of the US – China trade war. The paper uses the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam and examine its effect on Vietnam's exports and labor markets. Vietnamese exports to the US grew around twice as much between 2017 and 2019 in sectors hit by Trump's tariffs on China. This is mainly driven by new export product varieties. This unintended expansion of export opportunities in Vietnam led to job creation for both female and male workers in affected sectors relative to non-affected ones, but wage gains were enjoyed mostly by men. Finally, no evidence was found of occupational upgrading in affected sectors.

SPEAKER

Pierre-Louis sees himself as an applied-micro economist who uses natural experiments and novel datasets to get a better grasp of policy issues in trade and development. His research also often shows that trade policies can impact developing countries in many unexpected ways.

Open to all.

Free.

Livestreamed online: https://ucl.zoom.us/j/99117452796